Aarons 499 Picks (YTD +24.90)

[Maxx40]

Did I really want to do this?!! This is Talladega, home of "The Big One". What the hell, its too late to turn back now.

YTD TOTALS

32-20 +32.25 units (Match-Ups)
05-04 + 3.90 units (Props)
02-36 - 11.25 units (Outrights)
Total: + 24.90 units

Match-Ups

5.00 units Jamie McMurray(-135@sportsbook.com)over Greg Biffle
Big play for me.
Still riding the McMurray bandwagon despite his bad luck last week. Only one finish in the last six races here has he been below 17th, including 3 Top 10's. In this race last year this team finished 5th and everyone knows how bad this team was in '06.
On the other hand, Biffle has had his problems here. In the last six races he only has 2 Top 15's(best finish was 13th)and four finishes of 27th or worse. In fact, 8 of his last 9 starts in plate races has been finishes of 25th or worse. This year overall has shown more inconsistency.

4.00 units Matt Kenseth(-130@thegreek)over Kyle Busch
When you talk about plate races you always here the names Stewart, Earnhardt,all the RCR and Hendrick teams, but without much fanfare Kenseth has put up some very good numbers. 7 of his last 9 starts have resulted in Top 15's(4 of those are Top 5's) he just don't have the wins. He has gotten off to a great start in '07 with only one finish worst than 11th in the first 8 races.

3.00 units Kurt Busch(+115@betus)over Jimmie Johnson
Another driver with surprisingly good numbers on plate tracks. Five straight Top 10's at Talladega. Had the car to beat at Daytona before being wiped out by Tony Stewart.
Johnson does have a couple of plate wins to his credit, but his last three have resulted in finishes of 39th, 24th and 32nd.

3.00 units Kevin Harvick(+105@thegreek)over Dale Earnhardt Jr
Jr seems to have lost his mojo on the plate tracks with only one Top 10 in the last six races. Harvick continues to be strong with 3 straight Top 10's and coming off a win at Daytona. The only concern is his up and down, mostly down, season he has had so far.

Props

2.00 units Jamie McMurray(3.5 to 1@thegreek)to win group over
Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer

2.00 units Kurt Busch(7 to 2@wsex)to win group over
Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer, Ryan Newman,Casey Mears

Outrights
I don't know why I even bother, its been a while since I hit one. Gonna try a quarter each on four with good prices.
0.25 unit Kevin Harvick (14 to 1@bodog)
0.25 unit Matt kenseth (14 to 1@bodog)
0.25 unit David Gilliland(30 to 1@thegreek)
0.25 unit Jamie McMurray(28 to 1@bodog)

Good luck and enjoy the race.

 

[Maxx40]

Everything turned out pretty well today.Thankfully, the big play it. Both match-ups that were missed came up one position short, thats how close it was to a perfect day(with the exception of outrights of course).

Sunday's Totals

2-2 + 3.00 units(Match-Ups)
2-0 +14.00 units(Props)
0-4 - 1.00 unit (Outrights)

Total: +16.00 units

YTD Totals

34-22 +35.25 units(Match-Ups)
07-04 +17.90 units(Props)
02-40 - 12.25 units(Outrights)

Total: +40.90 units

 

[Gummo]

You know you won that Harvick matchup too. I had it also and thought I lost when they unofficially had Jr 5th. A couple hours later they moved him to 7th.

 

[Maxx40]

Thanks, Gummo. I saw that when I was reading the paper at lunch today. Made a good day even better.

New totals look like this.

Sunday Totals

3-1 + 9.15 units (Match-Ups)
2-0 +14.00 units (Props)
0-4 - 1.00 unit (Outrights)
Total: +22.15 units


YTD Totals

35-21 +41.40 units (Match-Ups)
07-04 +17.90 units (Props)
02-40 - 12.25 units (Outrights)
Total: +47.05 units